By Sam Thake, Customs Consultancy Manager, Denholm Good Logistics
The UK–India Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), concluded in 2025 and set to come into force on the 15th of July 2026, has been widely positioned as a landmark moment in the UK’s post-Brexit trade strategy.
With India’s economy continuing to grow rapidly—driven by a rising middle class and increasing demand for imports—the agreement presents a clear long-term opportunity. The UK government estimates it could contribute around £4.8 billion annually to UK GDP in the long run.
However, while the deal offers real potential, it is not a blanket opening of trade. Instead, it is a targeted and conditional agreement, where the benefits available to UK businesses will depend on sector, timing, and—critically—compliance.
At a high level, the agreement introduces significant tariff liberalisation:
- India will reduce tariffs on around 90% of UK tariff lines, with many reductions phased in over time
- The UK will provide near-total duty-free access (around 99%) to Indian exports from entry into force
Where the Opportunities Sit
The benefits for UK businesses are clearly focused in specific sectors, particularly those aligned with the UK’s high-value export strengths:
- Automotive and advanced manufacturing
- Premium food and drink, particularly whisky
- Financial, professional, and digital services
- Industrial goods and metals
Access to a large and fast-growing market such as India should create meaningful growth opportunities in these areas.
At the same time, the agreement strongly supports Indian exporters, particularly in:
- textiles and apparel
- leather goods and footwear
- engineering and manufactured goods
Commercial Reality: Increased Competition
While UK exporters gain improved access to India, the UK market will also become more accessible to Indian goods.
Given that many Indian exports are more cost-competitive, this is likely to:
- increase competition in certain UK sectors
- place pressure on domestic producers
- potentially shift sourcing decisions
For some businesses, this will create opportunity. For others, particularly in lower-margin sectors, it may present new competitive challenges.
Timing Matters: Benefits Are Phased
Another key consideration is timing.
From a UK exporter perspective, tariff reductions in India are not immediate. Instead, they are staged over a number of years depending on the product. This means:
- improved market access will develop gradually
- commercial benefits may take time to materialise
Businesses should therefore view this agreement as a long-term opportunity, rather than an immediate gain.
Accessing the Benefits: Rules of Origin
A critical point often overlooked is that reduced tariffs are not automatic.
To qualify, goods must meet the agreement’s Rules of Origin, and claims must be supported by valid proof. The agreement recognises three main methods:
- Origin Declaration (Annex 3B) – completed by the exporter – Annex 3B: Origin Declaration Template
- Certificate of Origin (Annex 3C) – issued by an authorised body – Annex 3C: Certificate of Origin Template
- Importer’s Knowledge – high evidential burden
For most UK exporters, the origin declaration route will be the most practical—but it comes with clear process requirements.
Origin Declarations: What UK Exporters Need to Do
UK exporters using origin declarations must follow a structured process:
- Register with HMRC and obtain a unique reference number linked to your business
- Ensure your details are validated and shared with Indian customs for verification
- Complete origin declarations accurately, using the prescribed template and ensuring alignment with Rules of Origin
- Submit the declaration by email to both Indian customs and the importer from your registered email address
- Indian customs will verify your details against their database
- If successful, the importer can claim preferential tariffs
- If rejected, the declaration must be corrected and resubmitted before preference can be claimed
Conclusion
The UK–India CETA offers clear benefits—but not for everyone. It creates opportunities for exporters and cost savings for importers, while increasing competition for some UK industries.
Ultimately, the agreement will favour those that are prepared. For UK exporters, the ability to meet origin requirements is not just important—it is the difference between gaining a commercial advantage and seeing no benefit at all.
If you need assistance with how this could affect your business, reach out to your DGL representative.
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